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Unfavorable weather conditions have limited winter crops in Ukraine, leaving more room for summer crops. The sowing of summer cereals and oilseeds is still slightly behind schedule.
Unfavorable weather conditions in Ukraine have limited winter crops, leaving more space for summer crops. The sowing of summer cereals and oilseeds is still slightly behind.
The weather conditions in April are an important indicator for the further development of plant stocks and associated productivity. In Ukraine, this spring, only about two-thirds of the usual amount of rain has fallen. Therefore, the likelihood of a good harvest decreases with each rainless day.
As of the end of April, winter cereal crops were in relatively good condition, with no obvious signs of moisture deficiency detected in the crops so far. However, this may change at the beginning of the rapeseed harvest when the final yield of winter cereal crops for this year is determined. Unfortunately, the weather forecasts for May regarding precipitation are not encouraging.
Persistent drought affects yield prospects. Although recent rainfall in April provided some relief, conditions in the east remain concerning due to the prolonged moisture deficit, and further rainfall is required. In western Ukraine, particularly in the Odessa and Vinnytsia regions, the crops appear to be in a satisfactory condition. Overall, winter crops have resumed their vegetative growth and can still recover from the strong water deficit of the winter.
There was only a slight delay in sowing summer crops recently. Overall, there is a lack of rain in Ukraine.
At the beginning of April, it was significantly cooler than usual in the far southwest, with minimum temperatures dropping to -12°C. This could have had a negative impact, especially in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, on rapeseed, while only minor effects are expected for cereals. Spring sowing was successfully completed in the west under favorable conditions, while dry weather in the east has hindered progress. Sowing of summer crops such as sunflowers and soybeans began in early April, albeit with some delay compared to last year.
In its April issue, MARS predicts this year's wheat yields in Ukraine at 43.1 dt/ha, which is 5% below the previous year. For barley, they forecast 36 dt/ha, which would be 10% less than in 2024. Corn yields are seen optimistically at 69.1 dt/ha, which is 8% above the previous year and 2% above average. Soybean yields are also expected to develop positively; with 25 dt/ha, this represents a 9% increase over the previous year and a 6% increase over the long-term average.
Despite the temporary temperature drop and snowfall in some regions of Ukraine at the beginning of April, as well as recent frosts, all field work is being carried out on time. The sowing delay compared to last year is no more than 5%, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine at the beginning of May. The sowing of some crops is almost complete.
By April 25, 88% of the planned summer wheat area had been sown, 90% of summer barley, and 96% of the oat area. Additionally, 96% of peas were drilled, as well as 90% of sugar beets. However, corn was only at 18% in the ground, and there is still work to be done with oilseeds.
Sunflowers had already been sown on 1.237 million ha, which is a quarter of the planned area. Soybeans occupied 187,600 ha at that time, which is 7.8% of the planned area.
