Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has released its monthly forecast for global grain production in the 2025/26 season. There are minimal changes expected in both expected harvest amounts and consumption.
In its latest May 2025 estimate, the IGC has slightly increased global grain production to 2.375 billion tonnes from the previous month. Global consumption is also marginally reduced to 2.372 billion tonnes. Ending stocks are calculated at 585 million tonnes, compared to 581 million tonnes the previous year.
Supply remains tight
The supply figure increases slightly to 24.6% of ending stocks to consumption. Compared to the previous year (24.7%), global grain supply in 2025/26 is as tight as in the current year.
The IGC expects international grain supply to remain relatively tight in the upcoming 2025/26 season, with ending stocks expected to remain low.
The key details of the IGC forecast are as follows:
The IGC estimates global wheat production at approximately 806 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous month. (The previous year was 799 million tonnes). Wheat consumption is projected at 813 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous year's 802 million tonnes. As a result, stocks are expected to decrease from 269 to 262 million tonnes year-on-year. The IGC now estimates global corn production at around 1.277 billion tonnes, slightly higher than the previous month. Consumption remains almost unchanged at 1.268 billion tonnes. This results in ending stocks of 284 million tonnes, compared to 275 million tonnes the previous year. The supply figure falls to 22.4% of ending stocks to consumption, below the average of recent years. Other grains are predicted to have slightly reduced production of 292 million tonnes and decreasing consumption of 291 million tonnes.
Close proximity of forecasts
Taking into account different data collection and analysis methods, the results of estimation institutions are relatively close within a small margin of error:
Comparing current grain forecasts for the upcoming harvest, there are relatively minor differences in production, consumption, and supply.