Fonterra announces high milk price forecast for 2025/2026.
The New Zealand dairy company Fonterra is predicting milk prices of 8.00 to 11.00 NZD/kgMS for 2025/26. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the expectation is higher than in 2021 or 2022.
The Milk Supply in the European Union and the Netherlands
The milk supply in the European Union and in the Netherlands was below the level of 2024 at the beginning of the year. However, farmers in the USA continued to produce more milk despite the bird flu.
Milk Production in the European Union
The quantity of milk produced varies worldwide in the first few months. The EU-27 is behind the previous year's results. This includes the Netherlands, which has had to make significant cutbacks. In contrast, the USA's development has been different despite facing several challenges.
European Union Produces Less Milk Than Previous Year
The milk supply in the EU remains below the previous year's level. The gap widened from 0.4% in January to 1.1% in February. This was due to a decrease in milk production, especially in Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Ireland also saw a decline in milk production compared to the previous year. Only a few Eastern European countries delivered more milk.
Overall, EU Farmers Produced Less Milk
Overall, farmers in the EU produced 0.8% less milk in the first two months of 2025 compared to the previous year. However, the quality of the milk in terms of ingredients was higher.
Milk Quantity in the Netherlands Narrows Gap to 2024
Dairy companies in the Netherlands recorded less milk in March 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. However, the gap narrowed from 2.5% in February to 1.5% in March. The milk supply in the first three months of the year was on average 1.9% lower than the previous year, mainly due to the long-term effects of blue tongue disease and reduced dairy cow stocks.
USA: More Milk Despite Bird Flu
Milk production continues to rise in the USA. In March 2025, it was 0.9% higher than the previous year and exceeded the level of 2023 for the first time since the beginning of 2025. From January to March, dairy farmers in the USA produced 0.8% more milk on average than in the previous year.
California Produces Less Milk Due to Bird Flu
While California continues to deliver less milk than in 2024 due to bird flu, milk production in most other states has increased significantly. This could be attributed to the steadily rising number of cows since December 2024.