Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
Poultry remains on a growth trajectory globally. The EU plays a significant role in both production and trade, while the USA is facing some challenges. According to the latest forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA, April 2025), global chicken meat production is expected to increase by 2% to 105.8 million tons in 2025. This growth is attributed to production increases by major players such as the USA, the EU, Brazil, Turkey, and China.
For the EU, a production increase of 2% to 11.75 million tons is anticipated. US analysts cite several reasons for the growth in the EU:
- Strong domestic demand
- Decreased energy and feed costs
- Lower imports from Ukraine
- Positive margin development, especially in Poland (the largest EU producer)
Global trade patterns are shifting as well. The global trade of chicken meat is projected to increase by 2% to 14 million tons in 2025. Brazil is expanding its share and is expected to cover more than a third of the world market with 5.09 million tons (+4%).
The US share in trade is shrinking. The EU remains stable with an export volume of 1.8 million tons (+1.6% compared to 2024). Particularly, Thailand, China, and Turkey are increasing their exports. China has also lifted import restrictions, benefiting Argentina (+11%). In contrast, the USA is losing significance in global trade, with exports decreasing by nearly 4% to 2.95 million tons, the lowest share of US production in 25 years (around 14%).