Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
The Australian Department of Agriculture is reducing expectations for the canola production in 2025/26. Lower yields and a slightly shrinking cultivation area are decreasing the country's export potential. The Australian Agricultural Ministry Abares has released a new forecast regarding the cultivation, production, and exports of canola in the 2025/26 season. According to the report, the cultivation area is expected to decrease slightly to just under 3.4 million hectares. Production is estimated at over 5.7 million tons of canola seed, which would be around 400,000 tons less than the current season. The main cause is lower yields due to ongoing dry conditions. Soil moisture in many regions is below the previous year's levels, negatively impacting sowing, plant growth, and ultimately yields. The Abares forecast is lower than the estimates of USDA and IGC. Currently, IGC expects around 6 million tons, while USDA anticipates over 6.1 million tons. This difference also affects the export potential. Abares predicts exports of 4.6 million tons for 2025/26, which is around 200,000 tons less than the current season and almost 1.4 million tons less than the 2023/24 season. USDA, on the other hand, forecasts stable export volumes. With this information, the global canola market could be tighter supplied in the upcoming season than previously expected. Australia, along with Canada and Ukraine, is one of the most important suppliers in the world market and currently the main canola supplier to the EU - even ahead of Ukraine.