Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
In China, many farmers are currently worrying about their harvests. Parts of the Chinese Wheat Belt in the provinces of Shaanxi and Henan have been severely affected by hot, dry weather. The sun has made the soil crack and scorched the wheat before it could ripen.
Some of the plants are still green and immature. Farmer Zhou Yaping from Maqiao village told Reuters that she may only harvest half of the yield she normally gets from her field. "I have been growing wheat for over 20 years and have never experienced such a severe drought," the 50-year-old told the reporter at the end of May.
Shaaxi saw the highest average temperatures on record last month since weather records began in 1961. Although official figures are still about six weeks away, more than a dozen farmers in the region and their harvest helpers have reported losses and small harvests that have decreased by up to half for some. In some parts of the province, the drought was so severe that farmers advanced the harvest by a week.
While recent days have finally seen some rain bringing relief, it has also halted the ongoing emergency harvest work. It is still too early to say whether the drought could lead China to import more wheat. This would be good news for farmers in countries like Australia, where high wheat stocks are expected at the end of the season, partly due to a decrease in Chinese imports.
Large wheat reserves and weak demand had also recently curbed China's appetite for imports, according to a trader. "The drought has significantly affected wheat yields in areas with poor irrigation infrastructure, but the overall production decline is not expected to be significant," said Rosa Wang from the Shanghai agricultural advisory firm JCI to Reuters. According to the state news agency Xinhua, about 60% of the wheat harvest in Henan and more than 20% in Shaanxi had been harvested by May 30.
The conditions in the vast agricultural belt vary. A farmer in Henan, the heart of China's breadbasket, irrigates his 20 hectares in Xinxiang and has maintained stable harvest expectations.
However, damages are clearly visible elsewhere in the province. In Zhumadian, a farmer harvested 750 hectares of wheat on May 23, more than a week earlier than usual due to the heat. The yield has decreased by 40%, similar to 2023 when floods led to sprouting and rot. "After covering the costs of seeds, harvest, and plowing, we barely break even and have hardly any profit," he said.