Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) regularly estimates global grain production. Wheat production is expected to remain at the previous year's level, with regional variations.
The FAO, the United Nations' agricultural and food organization, has updated its latest May 25 report on world grain production. Adjustments due to weather-related developments were overall minor, but with regional differences. Global wheat production is estimated at 795 million tons, remaining at the previous year's level.
However, it is expected that the grain harvest in 2025/26 will not be sufficient to meet global demand:
The total grain production in 2025/26 is projected not to be enough to meet the expected demand, as forecasted by the FAO.
Smaller harvests expected in Russia and Ukraine
In individual countries and regions, the organization expects some slight changes:
In Europe, a slightly higher wheat harvest is expected with some differences. However, there is still a downward risk due to dry conditions in northern areas. Russia is expected to have a smaller harvest of around 80 million tons. Although recent rainfall has improved yield prospects in Ukraine, the reduced planting area is expected to result in below-average production. In Canada, the main sowing of spring wheat is underway, with an expected harvest at the previous year's level. Due to drought conditions, the U.S. wheat harvest is estimated to be below the previous year's level. In India, despite challenging climate conditions in some regions, a record wheat harvest is still expected. In Pakistan, an expanded planting area supports hopes for a result above the 5-year average. North Africa has varying prospects: Morocco's harvest is expected to be below average due to drought. Algeria expects a moderate result. Expectations are slightly positive in the irrigated areas of Tunisia and Egypt. Argentina's recent rainfall has improved the wheat harvest outlook. Australia expects a harvest of just under 30 million tons, lower than the previous year's high.
Corn harvest underway in the Southern Hemisphere
The coarse grain harvest, focusing on corn, has begun in the Southern Hemisphere. Brazil's total corn production in 2025 is expected to surpass the previous year and the 5-year average. In Argentina, a smaller planting area and below-average yield expectations result in a reduced harvest. Favorable weather in South Africa is expected to lead to production above the previous year.
In the Northern Hemisphere, corn planting is in the early stages. In the world's largest producing region, the U.S., farmers' surveys indicate a 5% increase in the planting area. However, soybean cultivation is expected to decrease.