Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
The forecast for the German grain harvest in 2025 remains unchanged. The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) maintains its harvest forecast from the previous month. The reason for this is the rainfall of the last few days. However, the drought has left its mark: the plants often have fewer side shoots and the height of growth is lower. Currently, the DRV expects a grain harvest of just under 42 million tons, which is an increase of over seven percent compared to the (very poor) previous year. In view of the recent rains, the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) maintains its harvest forecast from the previous month. "Currently, we expect a grain harvest of just under 42 million tons, which is an increase of over seven percent compared to the previous year. We expect about four million tons of winter rapeseed, which is an increase of about ten percent," explains Guido Seedler, grain market expert at the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV). Whether these quantities can actually be harvested will depend crucially on the rainfall in the coming weeks and months. They are urgently needed as soil moisture reserves are low in many parts of Germany due to the prolonged dry period. Just in time: "The rainfall that started after a long dry period was necessary to protect the crops in Germany from damage," Seedler emphasizes. Grain and rapeseed already showing signs of drought damage In view of the recent rains, the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) maintains its harvest forecast from the previous month. Wheat is currently expected to yield 21.4 million tons (previous year 18.5 million tons). The grain is currently lush green, and the rapeseed is blooming. But the picture is partially deceiving, according to Seedler: "If you look closer, you can see that the plants have often formed fewer side shoots and the growth height is lower than usual. These are reactions to the lack of rain." And that is exceptionally missing this year. In many parts of Germany, less than 50 percent of the usual rainfall has fallen since the beginning of the year, with March 2025 being one of the driest months on record. "Therefore, we urgently need more rain so that the grain and rapeseed crops can reach their yield potential," explains the DRV grain market expert. The increasing spring drought is a significant challenge for agriculture. Therefore, according to the DRV, targeted plant breeding must play an increasingly important role. It already aims to breed grain and rapeseed varieties with higher drought tolerance. This will hardly be possible without new breeding techniques such as CRISPR/Cas, Seedler emphasizes.