Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
The USDA expects record harvests for wheat and corn. However, corn end stocks are at a 12-year low. Here's what the analysts are predicting.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its monthly WASDE report, which assesses the global supply and demand situation in agricultural markets. Analysts expect record wheat and rapeseed harvests. Corn stocks are projected to hit their lowest level in 12 years, while wheat stocks are expected to increase slightly.
USDA expects record wheat harvest - large harvest for farmers in Europe
Global wheat production is set to reach a record level. For the 2025/26 year, the USDA expects a production of 808.5 million metric tons of wheat. Production is expected to increase in the EU, India, the UK, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada. In the EU, the USDA forecasts a wheat harvest of 136 million tons, which is 13.9 million tons or 11.4% more than the previous year's 122.1 million tons. Production is expected to decrease in the U.S., Australia, Kazakhstan, and slightly in Ukraine. However, this will be offset by increased production in other countries, resulting in an expected total quantity 8.8 million tons higher than last year. Overall, with production at 808.5 million tons and consumption at 808 million tons, global end stocks are expected to increase slightly by 500,000 tons to 265.7 million tons. While stocks in China and Pakistan are expected to decline the most, the U.S. and the EU are likely to see the biggest increases.
Wheat: Russia remains export champion, prices drop for U.S. farmers
Russia is expected to remain the world's largest wheat exporter with 45 million tons. In Europe, exports are projected to increase by 7.5 million tons to 34 million tons compared to the previous year. Argentina and Ukraine are also expected to export more wheat than before. The USDA anticipates lower wheat exports for the U.S. due to strong competition from major exporters. For the 2025/26 season, the U.S. is expected to have an average producer price for wheat of 5.30 US cents/bushel, which is 0.20 US cents/bushel less than the previous year.
Farmers harvest record amounts of corn - consumption even higher
The forecast for global corn production is 1.265 billion tons, a new record. However, the sharp increase in consumption is expected to drive global stocks to a record low. Production is set to rise significantly in the U.S., Ukraine, and Argentina. This is in contrast to a global consumption of 1.274 billion tons, also a new record level. For the second consecutive time, consumption is expected to exceed production, significantly reducing global corn stocks. According to U.S. estimates, stocks are projected to decrease by 9.5 million tons to 277.8 million tons, the lowest level since 2013/14. The U.S. is likely to remain the largest corn exporter in the world, although its market share is expected to decline slightly. The U.S. is expected to have a slightly lower producer price averaging 4.2 US cents/bushel, which is 0.15 less than the previous year. Market prices show mixed reactions after the WASDE report.
After USDA report: Prices react mixed
Wheat prices reacted mixed, with prices falling in Chicago while European prices slightly increased. The September wheat contract on Matif managed to hold its ground, closing at 204.5 Euro/ton on May 12. However, the next day, prices started to decline again. Similarly, the July wheat contract on the CBOT also fell. Corn prices also showed mixed trends. The June contract on Matif saw a slight increase of 0.25 Euro/ton at the beginning of the week, while the August corn contract decreased slightly by 0.75 Euro/ton to 194.75 Euro/ton. At the CBOT, corn prices also weakened, with the July contract closing at 447.26 US cents/bushel on Monday, up by 2.5 US cents from the previous day. Stay updated on the latest reports on the grain markets in the agrarheute market section.