Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
According to a study by the US Department of Agriculture, the increasing prosperity and growing population in India are expected to lead to a significant increase in the demand for animal feed.
India is likely to become increasingly reliant on imports of animal feed in the coming decade, as suggested by a study conducted by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The world's most populous country is expected to continue its growth. The population increase and rising prosperity are projected to result in a significant increase in the consumption of animal food products according to the USDA.
As outlined in the study, the consumption of animal products, excluding milk, in India has increased from 6 to 17 kg per capita since the 1960s, reaching 2021. The population is also forecasted to grow from around 1.4 billion to 1.5 billion by 2050.
Furthermore, it is expected that during the same period, per capita income will double. This could lead to India needing to import maize and soybean meal to meet the growing domestic demand for animal feed as early as the next decade.
The entire import demand will depend on the level of prosperity and population growth in India, as stated by the USDA. The analysts have calculated a scenario with rapid growth, where the population increases annually by 0.4% and per capita GDP by 6.2%.
Under these assumptions, the import demand for maize is projected to exceed 20 million tons in 2034 and grow to 122 million tons by 2050.
In a moderate scenario, with population growth of 0.3% and per capita GDP growth of 3.8% per year, maize import demand is expected to be only 26 million tons in 2050. If India allows certain genetically modified varieties to be grown domestically, this could further reduce to just 14 million tons according to the USDA.
Similar trends are seen in soybean meal imports. For the rapid growth scenario, USDA predicts that the import demand will nearly quintuple from 2.1 million tons in 2020 to over 10 million tons by 2030, increasing to around 50 million tons by 2050.
Even with moderate growth, USDA analysts anticipate that foreign demand could reach 4.1 million tons in 2030, rising to 12.8 million tons by 2050.
There are also opportunities in genetic engineering for soybeans, as mentioned in the report. If India adopts this technology, the import demand for soybeans could be limited to 9.3 million tons by 2050 in the moderate scenario.