Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
The USDA predicts record harvests for corn and wheat in 2025/26. US corn production is expected to exceed 400 million tons for the first time, with a global forecast of 1.26 billion tons.
In the 2025/26 fiscal year, corn production in the United States could surpass 400 million tons for the first time. At least, this is the initial forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the upcoming season, as outlined in its current report from the Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) on the global grain market.
Experts estimate US production at 401 million tons, a significant increase from the over 377 million tons of corn harvested in 2024.
Record corn production expected
Driven in part by record harvests in the US, the USDA projects a global corn production of 1.26 billion tons for 2025/26. If realized, this would also be the largest quantity to date. The important production and export countries Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine are also forecasted to have higher harvests than in 2024/25.
Brazil's corn production is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 131 million tons. Argentina's harvest is seen at 53 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons. FAS experts anticipate 30.5 million tons of corn from Ukraine, a rise of 3.7 million tons.
Market in balance
Despite the global corn market, supply and demand are expected to remain largely in balance. The USDA even anticipates slightly higher consumption compared to production. Overall, experts forecast a global consumption of around 1.27 billion tons of corn. Inventories are expected to decrease by approximately 10 million tons to 277 million tons by the end of the campaign.
This is due in part to strong demand from the European Union and Mexico, as stated in the report. Additionally, there is a growing global need for both human consumption and the livestock feed and industrial use of corn.
Nearly balanced wheat balance expected
The USDA also forecasts a record wheat harvest for 2025/26. According to the report, a total of 808.5 million tons is predicted worldwide. This would be 8.8 million tons more than the current fiscal year. Production is expected to increase mainly in the EU and India, offsetting slight harvest losses in Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the US from 2024/25.
The initial forecast from the US Department of Agriculture predicts wheat production of 136 million tons in the European Union. The harvest, which was affected by unfavorable weather conditions in 2024, of around 122.1 million tons is expected to be significantly surpassed. Russia is also expected to increase its production by 1.4 million tons to 83 million tons. However, Ukraine is projected to harvest about 400,000 tons less wheat due to weather and war conditions compared to the previous year. The USDA estimates production at 23 million tons.
Canada expects second-highest wheat harvest
A similar situation is expected for wheat production in North America. While Canada can expect the second-highest production ever according to the US Department, slightly less wheat is expected to be harvested in the US. Specifically, Canada is expected to thresh 36 million tons of wheat, an increase of over 1 million tons. The projected 52.2 million tons for the US, however, would be a decrease of around 1.3 million tons.
The USDA also predicts a record global wheat consumption, which is expected to increase from an estimated 803.6 million tons for 2024/25 to 808.0 million tons, nearly matching the expected production quantity. As a result, ending stocks are expected to increase by around 500,000 tons to 265.7 million tons, with increases in India offsetting declines in China and Pakistan.