Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
The introduction of a base tariff by the USA could lead to a decline in US imports of cheese from the EU, according to a report by Rabobank.
In April 2025, the US government implemented a 10% base tariff for trading partners around the world. Analysts at Rabobank suggest that this could result in a 10-15% decrease in US imports of EU cheese. The impact on butter and butter oil is expected to be less significant.
The reduced EU cheese imports to the USA due to the increased import tariff could be offset by the country's higher domestic production. Market experts anticipate that European cheese exporters will shift their focus to emerging markets in East Asia and the Middle East.
On the other hand, Rabobank does not expect major disruptions for butter and butter oil, as the USA continues to be a net importer of butter fat. Historically, increased import tariffs have had little effect on EU dairy fat exports to the United States.
Overall, the tariff policy affects approximately €1.9 billion in butter and cheese sales.
In April 2025, the US government implemented a 10% base tariff for trading partners around the world. Analysts at Rabobank suggest that this could result in a 10-15% decrease in US imports of EU cheese. The impact on butter and butter oil is expected to be less significant.
The reduced EU cheese imports to the USA due to the increased import tariff could be offset by the country's higher domestic production. Market experts anticipate that European cheese exporters will shift their focus to emerging markets in East Asia and the Middle East.
On the other hand, Rabobank does not expect major disruptions for butter and butter oil, as the USA continues to be a net importer of butter fat. Historically, increased import tariffs have had little effect on EU dairy fat exports to the United States.
Overall, the tariff policy affects approximately €1.9 billion in butter and cheese sales.