Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
Current Analysis of the Grain Market in Germany
The rains in Germany came just in time for the grain crops. However, additional precipitation is necessary for the predicted significantly larger harvest compared to last year.
Current Market Assessment by Jan Peters, Peters Agrardaten GmbH:
At the beginning of this week, wheat prices show a similar level to eight days ago with a slight tendency towards weakness. The German Raiffeisenverband (DRV) points out that the rains in Germany around Easter were helpful for the growth of the grain, but not sufficient for further good development.
Harvest Forecast Significantly Above Previous Year
The lack of rainfall at the beginning of the year has already shown its effects in the form of missing side shoots and reduced plant height. Nevertheless, experts are expecting a total wheat harvest of around 21.4 million tons, nearly 16% more than last year. The prerequisite, however, is sufficient moisture in the coming weeks.
Grain Crop Conditions in France
In France, field conditions are rated as good to excellent at 74%, significantly higher than the previous year. Relatively large stock levels are expected at the end of the fiscal year, partly due to weak export activities.
Impact of Rainfall in the USA
In the USA, rainfall has improved crop conditions and put pressure on prices. The strong Euro has led to little movement in export markets for EU products.
Stable Cash Market
The cash market continues to be characterized by stability. However, there are reports of a more stable price level in the southwest. There is not much old harvest produce left.