Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
In the upcoming season, a record amount of soybeans is expected to be harvested again. Supply and demand could then be almost balanced. For the 2025/26 season, a global soybean production of 428.2 million tons is expected, according to the International Grains Council (IGC) in its latest estimate. This would not only be 700,000 tons more than expected in March, but also a new record. 3% more soybeans expected than the previous year This also increases the plus to the previous year's result to almost 3%. Since most of the increase is based on a larger harvest in South America, the forecast is considered extremely vague, as the beans are not even in the ground yet. With the currently estimated 174.0 million tons, the Council expects Brazil to have a harvest about 4% larger than in 2025. In March, 173.5 million tons were still expected. For Argentina, 50.5 million tons are expected, which is more than 5% above the current season. Offer and demand for soybeans are still on course for a record. However, in 2025/26, global reserves are also expected to be expanded. Only a small increase in the USA A USDA survey confirmed the IGC's assessment of the area under cultivation in the United States. The area is expected to be reduced in about a third of the reported states, including Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, and Dakota. The current low price level is prompting farmers to grow more corn and less soybeans. However, the final data will also be influenced by factors such as trade policy and climate developments. Assuming average yields, the US harvest in 2025 is expected to slightly exceed the previous year's result of 118.8 million tons with 119.0 million tons. Consumption is growing As demand for soy products in the feed, food, and industrial market segments is expected to reach record levels, a 4% increase in global consumption to a record 427 million tons is forecast for 2025/26. In March, 426 million tons were still estimated. Although the Council expects a reduced growth rate for China, Asia is expected to continue to play a key role in the growing demand. Consumption in the US is also expected to increase for the fifth consecutive year and even surpass the 70 million ton mark for the first time. This is primarily due to lively demand from the US energy sector for soybean oil. Reserves are increasing Global stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season are expected to increase. According to the Council, an estimated 83 million tons of soybeans will be stored, almost 2% more than in the current fiscal year. Despite the larger supply, exports are expected to remain stable at 181.0 million tons in 2025/26. The Council revised its previous month's forecast downwards by 2.0 million tons, likely due to low imports from China. It remains to be seen how US deliveries will develop. Ultimately, demand from China is likely to be crucial here as well. Although its share has declined due to the increasing dominance of Brazil, it still averaged 28% in the five years up to and including 2023/24.