The outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Brazil's poultry industry has the potential to redirect global poultry meat trade flows. This was highlighted by the French Institute for Poultry Industry (Itavi). According to experts, it is expected that the import bans imposed by Brazil's main customers could increase demand for goods from the European Union. Given the already tight supply situation in the community, this could lead to price increases. Will China now switch to EU poultry meat? Itavi sees opportunities for European producers in trading with China. Beijing must ensure its supply after losing its two main suppliers. The People's Republic was the main buyer of Brazilian poultry exports and has completely stopped imports from there. China had previously limited its imports from the USA due to the avian flu prevalent there and the escalating trade dispute, according to the institute. The crucial question: Will it remain an isolated case? It remains to be seen whether there will be only one outbreak in a Brazilian poultry farm. If so, the country could resume its deliveries fairly quickly. Brazil's poultry industry has a lot at stake. According to Itavi figures, the countries that have now completely closed their borders were exporting an average of 148,217 tons of poultry meat worth 266 million euros per month in 2025. In the European Union, an average of 22,022 tons were sold for 65 million euros, while the China business brought in an average of 64 million euros per month with a volume of 31,154 tons. In total, Brazil reportedly exported around 5.12 million tons of poultry meat worth 9.14 billion euros in 2024. 37% of this went to the countries that have now closed their borders.
