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Avian influenza and Avian Metapneumovirus are significantly impacting the US turkey market. At the same time, the demand for turkey products is declining in favor of pork and chicken meat.
The US turkey industry is facing significant challenges in 2025. Since the beginning of the year, over 1.4 million turkeys have been killed due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Additionally, the Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV) is spreading, causing severe respiratory diseases and production disruptions.
Mark Jordan, Executive Director and Chief Agricultural Economist at Leap Markets, a US analysis firm specializing in agricultural commodities, describes the situation as "extremely tense": "The industry continues to suffer from disruptions due to AMPV and HPAI. At the same time, the demand for turkey products is decreasing as pork and chicken meat are increasingly seen as more cost-effective alternatives."
The per capita consumption of turkeys in the US decreased by 13% to 6.2 kg in 2024. This marks a 20% decline compared to 2009. Changing consumption habits and economic conditions led to the closure of two slaughter and processing plants in the US, including Foster Farms and Cargill. Despite the plant closures, Cargill remains diversified and strongly positioned in the market, according to Jordan.
Export business is struggling - price increases for dark meat cuts offer opportunities
Export business is also under pressure: Over 80% of US turkey exports went to Mexico in the first quarter. The export share of "Ready-to-Cook" (RTC) turkey products, for example, decreased from 13.5% in 2014 to 9.6% in 2024. A further decline to 8.5% is forecasted for 2025.
The only silver lining is that prices for dark meat cuts like drumsticks have risen due to scarcity. The continuing rise in beef and chicken prices could support the demand for turkey products - provided that animal health problems do not worsen further.
