Drought in Russia: Grain region particularly affected
In Russia, the main region for grain cultivation has been experiencing dry conditions for weeks. This is likely to result in lower yields and poorer quality than previously expected.
According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the dry winter and delayed sowing could significantly reduce the grain harvest in the country in 2025 compared to the previous year, more than previously predicted. The forecast for the 2025 grain harvest in Ukraine is currently more pessimistic. With 51 million tons, the harvest could be about 10% smaller than the 56.7 million tons in the previous year. The reasons cited for this downgrade include the unusually warm winter and lack of rainfall. Additionally, rainfalls in some regions are said to have delayed sowing by two weeks. Furthermore, it is currently too dry. When comparing Ukraine's figures, the most negative forecast stands at -10%, while using the International Grains Council's harvest numbers, it goes up to -29%. The discrepancy in estimates for maize 25 or sunflower seeds 25 alone is 4 million tons. For wheat, it's over 3 million tons, and for barley, 1.7 million tons. The total oilseed harvest is expected to reach 20.16 million tons, down from 21.18 million tons in 2024, mainly due to a decrease in rapeseed production by 600,000 tons. Exports seen at 40 million tons The Minister did not provide an official export forecast for the 2025/26 economic year, citing uncertainty about the final harvest volume. However, analysts from ASAP Agri estimate total grain exports at 40.9 million tons, including 15.5 million tons of wheat.